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ALERT: Probable Tropical Storm by Felipe
A large area of disorganized thunderstorms in the western Caribbean between the northeast corner of Honduras and the Caymans is showing signs of organization. The National Hurricane Center gives it a high chance (70 percent) of becoming a cyclone. An aircraft will explore the disturbance today to see if rotation has begun.

The area is visible on the images HERE.

RE: ALERT: Probable Tropical Storm by Felipe
Here's the midday update on this system:

A WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W...
DRIFTING WESTWARD. A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE
WAVE NEAR 17N. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N
TO 17N BETWEEN 81W AND 83W/84W...AT LEAST REACHING THE EASTERN
COASTS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. OTHER STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE WATERS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER...
TO THE SOUTH OF 19N BETWEEN 85W AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
BELIZE. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 19N BETWEEN 79W AND THE
NORTHEASTERN THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. THE
SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY
ARE BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. IT IS LIKELY
THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT
REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS HIGH. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS AREA OF WEATHER LATER TODAY.

RE: ALERT: Probable Tropical Storm by Felipe
2:00 PM EDT Update June 25, 2010

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA BETWEEN THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS AND GRAND
CAYMAN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY. AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE SYSTEM TO
DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED. REGARDLESS...
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY FORM AT ANY TIME LATER TODAY OR
SATURDAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS
SYSTEM...ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS...IS FORECAST
TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND REACH THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IN A DAY OR TWO. ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND YUCATAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

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